wheats.aiUSDA WASDE · 2026/27 · RELEASE OF 10 NOV 2026
WASDE wheat stocks-to-use
Stocks-to-use is the wheat market’s most watched measure of scarcity: projected ending stocks divided by a year’s use. This page tracks it for the two groups that matter for export prices, the eight major exporters and the world excluding China, in every monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release since 2002.
In the 10 Nov 2026 WASDE, USDA projected 2026/27 major-exporter stocks-to-use at 18.0%, +0.94 percentage points against the 9 Oct 2026 release. Across all 292 monthly projections since 10 May 2002 the ratio averaged 16.0%, ranging from 9.5% (11 Mar 2008, 2007/08) to 22.9% (10 May 2002, 2002/03).
- Major exporters stocks/use · 2026/27
- 18.0%
- World excl. China stocks/use
- 23.7%
- World stocks/use (incl. China)
- 33.9%
- IGC major exporters · 15 Oct 2026
- 16.4%
Every WASDE projection since 2002
Each point is the stocks-to-use ratio for the crop year being projected in that month’s report, so the line steps when the projection rolls to a new crop year each May.
| Release | Crop year | Major exporters | World excl. China |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | 2026/27 | 18.04 | 23.75 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 2026/27 | 17.10 | 23.10 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 2026/27 | 16.54 | 23.00 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 2026/27 | 15.34 | 22.57 |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026/27 | 14.66 | 22.44 |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 2026/27 | 15.13 | 22.85 |
| 12 May 2026 | 2026/27 | 15.97 | 22.84 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | 2025/26 | 18.38 | 23.55 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 2025/26 | 18.06 | 22.48 |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 2025/26 | 18.18 | 22.58 |
| 12 Jan 2026 | 2025/26 | 18.45 | 22.70 |
| 9 Dec 2025 | 2025/26 | 17.65 | 22.24 |
Wheat balance sheets by country
USDA’s 2026/27 projections from the 10 Nov 2026 WASDE, in million tonnes. For individual countries and the exporter group, use includes exports, because exports draw on the same stocks; for the world totals, use is domestic consumption.
| Region | Production | Domestic use | Exports | Ending stocks | Stocks/use | Revision (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 827.5 | 829.6 | 208.7 | 280.8 | 33.9 | +0.51 |
| World excl. China | 686.5 | 680.6 | 207.7 | 161.6 | 23.7 | +0.65 |
| Major exporters (8) | 397.0 | 230.8 | 182.9 | 74.6 | 18.0 | +0.94 |
| United States | 41.7 | 30.1 | 20.4 | 20.2 | 40.0 | +0.22 |
| European Union | 133.0 | 115.8 | 31.0 | 11.7 | 8.0 | ±0.00 |
| Russia | 88.0 | 41.2 | 39.0 | 20.1 | 25.1 | +1.54 |
| Ukraine | 26.5 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 34.3 | +6.54 |
| Canada | 36.5 | 8.6 | 30.5 | 4.8 | 12.2 | ±0.00 |
| Australia | 32.5 | 9.7 | 24.5 | 5.2 | 15.1 | −0.05 |
| Argentina | 23.0 | 7.5 | 16.5 | 2.9 | 12.0 | +4.01 |
| Kazakhstan | 15.8 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 14.2 | +2.62 |
| China | 141.0 | 149.0 | 1.0 | 119.2 | 79.5 | ±0.00 |
| India | 121.0 | 111.4 | 2.0 | 29.5 | 26.0 | ±0.00 |
Why major exporters and the world excluding China
China holds roughly half of the world’s wheat stocks but barely trades them, so world stocks-to-use overstates the grain importers can actually buy. The exporter ratio measures the tightness the export market prices: ending stocks of the United States, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Kazakhstan, divided by their domestic use plus exports. WASDE’s own “major exporters” group has changed membership over the years, so Wheats keeps this fixed group of eight across the whole history, the same group the International Grains Council (IGC) uses.
World excluding China removes the largest single holder from both stocks and use. It moves more slowly than the exporter ratio because it includes importing countries’ own stocks.
Reading the monthly revisions
USDA publishes WASDE once a month, usually between the 8th and the 12th. Each release revises the projection for the current crop year; the revision column above compares it with the previous release for the same crop year. The first projection for a new crop year appears in May and is the least reliable; by the following spring most of the harvest uncertainty has been resolved. Large revisions typically follow changes in production estimates for Russia, the EU, Australia or Argentina, or in export programmes.
The IGC publishes an independent balance sheet in its monthly Grain Market Report. Its 2026/27 projection of 15 Oct 2026 puts major-exporter stocks-to-use at 16.4% and world excluding China at 21.4%. Crop-year definitions differ between the two agencies, so the levels are not identical even for the same harvest.
Sources and licence
Balance sheets are read from the USDA WASDE report (US public domain) and the IGC Grain Market Report; each release is stored as published, so revisions are never overwritten. The Wheats terminal shows the same ratios next to the Euronext milling wheat futures curve and the Rouen cash market. See also Euronext milling wheat futures and Rouen wheat price and basis.