wheats.aiEURONEXT PARIS · EBM FORWARD CURVE
Euronext milling wheat futures (EBM)
Euronext Milling Wheat No. 2 futures (symbol EBM) are Europe’s benchmark wheat futures, traded on Euronext Paris in euros per tonne and settled by physical delivery. Prices for each delivery month together form the EBM forward curve, which shows how the market values wheat today against wheat delivered later in the season and in the next crop year.
- Contract size
- 50 t
- Minimum price movement
- €0.25/t
- Delivery months
- Mar · May · Sep · Dec
- Tick value per contract
- €12.50
Listed EBM maturities and last trading days
The curve currently runs across the next 8 delivery months. Options on these futures (OBM) stop trading weeks before their underlying futures, so both dates are listed. Dates are from Euronext’s published milling wheat trading calendar.
| Contract | Month code | Futures last trading day | OBM option last trading day |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBM Dec 2026 | Z6 | 10 Dec 2026 | 16 Nov 2026 |
| EBM Mar 2027 | H7 | 10 Mar 2027 | 15 Feb 2027 |
| EBM May 2027 | K7 | 10 May 2027 | 15 Apr 2027 |
| EBM Sep 2027 | U7 | 10 Sept 2027 | 16 Aug 2027 |
| EBM Dec 2027 | Z7 | 10 Dec 2027 | 15 Nov 2027 |
| EBM Mar 2028 | H8 | 10 Mar 2028 | 15 Feb 2028 |
| EBM May 2028 | K8 | 10 May 2028 | 18 Apr 2028 |
| EBM Sep 2028 | U8 | 11 Sept 2028 | 15 Aug 2028 |
Reading the forward curve
When stocks are ample the curve slopes upwards (contango): each later month trades above the one before by roughly what it costs to store and finance grain until then, which pays holders to keep wheat in store. When nearby wheat is scarce the curve flattens or inverts (backwardation), and the market pays for wheat now rather than later. The May to September spread crosses the harvest, so it reflects expected new-crop supply rather than storage alone.
Wheats measures each calendar spread against full carry, the cost of carrying a tonne from one delivery month to the next: financing the front price at the euro short-term rate (€STR) plus storage, assumed at €1.00 per tonne per month. A spread near 100% of full carry signals comfortable stocks; a low or negative share signals prompt tightness.
| Spread | Months | Storage (€/t) | Financing per €100/t of price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2026 → Mar 2027 | 3 | 3.00 | 0.61 |
| Mar 2027 → May 2027 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.41 |
| May 2027 → Sep 2027 | 4 | 4.00 | 0.81 |
| Sep 2027 → Dec 2027 | 3 | 3.00 | 0.61 |
| Dec 2027 → Mar 2028 | 3 | 3.00 | 0.61 |
| Mar 2028 → May 2028 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.41 |
| May 2028 → Sep 2028 | 4 | 4.00 | 0.81 |
Settlement prices, calendar spreads and each spread’s share of full carry are calculated from licensed Euronext settlements, so their values are shown only to members in the Wheats terminal, together with the Rouen basis and the OBM option-expiry probability.
Investment fund positioning in EBM
Euronext’s weekly Commitments of Traders report put investment funds’ net position in milling wheat futures and options at +6,073 lots (about 0.30 million tonnes net long) in the week of 6 Nov 2026, −31,309 lots on the week. Over the past 52 weeks the net position ranged from −266,036 to +161,539 lots; funds were less long than now in 44% of the 440 weeks since 4 May 2018.
Euronext has reported futures separately since 30 September 2026; the futures-only net position in the week of 6 Nov 2026 was −1,766 lots. Large net short positions leave the market exposed to short covering when supply news turns.
Sources
Contract terms: Euronext EBM contract specification. Positioning: Euronext Commitments of Traders, weekly. Interest rate: ECB euro short-term rate. Wheats provides information aggregation, not trading recommendations. See also Rouen wheat price and basis, WASDE wheat stocks-to-use and the research standards behind the expiry model.