wheats.aiUSDA PSD · SUGAR · 2026/27
World sugar stocks-to-use
Stocks-to-use is the sugar market’s measure of scarcity: ending stocks divided by a year’s consumption. USDA’s Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) database adds up every country’s sugar balance in its local marketing year and updates the world total each month with the WASDE report. Years are labelled by the year in which they start.
- World stocks-to-use
- 24.6%
- Change on the prior year
- +0.5 pp
- World production
- 184.9 Mt
- Production minus use
- +4.3 Mt
World sugar balance
USDA projects world sugar stocks at 44.4 million tonnes (raw value) at the end of 2026/27, 24.6% of a year’s consumption, +0.5 points on 2025/26. That is higher than in 40% of the 67 years since 1960/61. A lower ratio means less buffer against a poor Brazilian or Indian crop.
| Marketing year | Production | Consumption | Exports | Ending stocks | Stocks-to-use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 184.9 | 180.5 | 62.3 | 44.4 | 24.6% |
| 2025/26 | 186.1 | 180.5 | 62.7 | 43.5 | 24.1% |
| 2024/25 | 180.3 | 176.0 | 64.8 | 42.3 | 24.0% |
| 2023/24 | 179.6 | 177.6 | 63.0 | 44.8 | 25.2% |
| 2022/23 | 178.8 | 177.5 | 61.9 | 45.6 | 25.7% |
| 2021/22 | 180.6 | 175.3 | 64.5 | 47.1 | 26.9% |
Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU
Brazil shipped 54% of world sugar exports in 2026/27, so its centre-south cane crush and the share of cane its mills turn into sugar rather than ethanol move the world balance most. India is the second producer and exports only in surplus years under government quotas; Thailand is usually the second exporter and supplies much of Asia. The EU, a beet producer, swings between small surpluses and deficits.
| Origin | 2024/25 production | 2025/26 production | 2026/27 production | 2024/25 exports | 2025/26 exports | 2026/27 exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 43.7 | 43.8 | 42.5 | 34.9 | 34.1 | 33.6 |
| India | 28.0 | 30.0 | 33.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Thailand | 10.2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| European Union | 16.3 | 15.5 | 14.4 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
China, the largest importer, is projected to buy 5.5 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Sources
Balances: USDA Production, Supply and Distribution, sugar, centrifugal (US public domain); stocks-to-use is ending stocks divided by total domestic consumption. Wheats provides information aggregation, not trading recommendations. See also the world sugar price, ICE Sugar No. 11 futures and the sugar board in the Wheats terminal.